In the 27.10.26 #IsraeliElections, turn out was high, in all sectors. There are 11 parties in the newly-elected parliament, of 120 seats. They are:

Pro-Netanyahu block - a total of 53/120. Mainly #Likkud (#Netanyahu): 27, and also the smaller #OtzmaYehudit (Ben Gvir) - 7 and #HatzionutHadatit (smotrich) - 6, and the two ultra orthodox parties: #UnitedToraJudaism - 7 and #Shas - 6.

Anti-Netanyahu block - a total of 67/120. But of those 19/120 are the two "Arab" parties (#JointList: 11 and #Raam: 8), whereas the rest 48/120 are the main "Eisencot-bloc": #Yashar (#Eisencot) - 21, #Together (Bennet) - 12, #TheDemocracts (Golan) - 8 and #YisraelBeitenu (Liberman) - 7.

At this point there was an obvious coalition: all the anti-Netanyahu block. It's a solid majority. The problem is that too many in the Eisencot bloc (explicitly not the Democracts, specifically yes Liberman, the other two: not clear) promised that they would form a coalition without "the Arabs". Even though polls before the elections showed that this would be impossible.

It is also not clear how much the Joint List really wants to be in the government. They are inherently an opposition party. It's not clear how much they are willing to change. But this is a side issue. Ra'am is very much willing to be in the government and has already gone through various hoops to do that.

Politics, as we know, is the art of possible. Suddenly Liberman has come up with a great idea: in order to avoid including "the Arabs", let's try to enlist the ultra orthodox instead. This also leaves his party in a more comfortable position in the new coalition: potentially even as an axis of it, rather than somewhere at the edge of the right wing. And potentially even (as some people claim) in a position to somehow become prime minister.

Including even one of the ultra orthodox parties (United Tora Judaism is a more likely candidate) is still very complicated and will make it very problematic for the newly-formed government to seriously tackle major issues with the ultra orthodox population in Israel.

So what happened after the elections?

The next thing that needed to happen (except getting official results. Likkud and some other opposition parties tried to falsely blame others for stealing the elections. Failed. But that's for a different post) is for various parties to recommend to the president who would form the government. Eventually all the anti-Netanyahu bloc (67/120) supported Eisencot. Netanyahu was supported only by 46 of its block, and United Tora Judaism decided to not recommend anybody.

That means that as of this Sunday (Nov-8th) the clock is ticking for Eisencot to form a government.

The Knesset was sworn in on Tuesday (Nov 10th). However the chair is still the old one from the previous seat - #AmirOhana. Ohana used maximal delay tactics to avoid replacing Knesset Chair until next Wednesday. Some temporary committees have already started to work.

A number of proposed laws in them were signed generally by members of all 6 anti-Netanyahu bloc. In the single (and very procedural) vote, again it was basically divided by the original anti-Netanyahu vs. the pro-Netanyahu blocs. Thus so far the work in progress coalition is that of the 67 members, and not with any ultra orthodox. We'll have to see if this forms into an actual coalition.

#ilpol

https://mishmarbechirot.org/

Elections in Israel are nation-wide. Voters elect the same day all over the country (which is not large. Roughly the same size of e.g. Austria). A ballot includes a single note for a list of candidates to the Knesset - a parliament with a single house of 120 members. Lists are identified by a short name composed of up to three letters. Lists are roughly named "parties (technically a list may be composed of several parties). For more information, see:
https://www.gov.il/en/pages/election-about-info?officeid=26857f24-4eaa-4032-a39d-5dc66d374ee3

There were almost 13,000 voting stations. The operation of manning them - a team of almost 100,000 people on election day, and without major issues, is managed by the Central Election Committee. This is an independent governmental body (not controlled by the government. That is actually true in practice) run by a Supreme Court judge.

Each voting station has its own elections committee. There are three members to the committee, appointed by parties, and there are three helpers, appointed by the Central Committee - two secretaries (up until previous round there was only one) and there is an elections inspector with a body camera (new since 2019 round two. To make sure there's no excuse for people to take photos inside the station). The camera is normally off. It is turned on in case of an incident. And at the time of counting (where there are anyway no voters inside).

So now we finally get to the observers.

All of those are payed workers, that typically stay all day (7:00-24:00 or even 6:00-3:00 the day after. It's a long day!). Apart from that, any list running in the elections and not represented in a committee for the station may place an observer (for any part of the day). Observers seat at a different table and may only observe, but do nothing. Up until this round, this was a convenient way for a party to follow voting inside a station and see who has not voted yet. In this round of elections, reporting from inside the station is no longer allowed. It is probably still done, but not as reliable.

In the past there have always been some people who wanted to make sure elections run well and volunteered to do so through people they know in various parties. In 2019 (I'm not sure if before round 1 or round 2) a group of people has decided to make this easier for people - sign up with us, and we will talk to a party to have you observe on their behalf.

Over the rounds of elections this has become a well-oiled machine.

There has been several ways to sign up with them. I'm not familiar with whatever filtering they apply on candidates (I know there is some). I signed up well in advance. I was asked to give my preference of location and time of day (there are three shifts of 6 hours. First one includes observing the setup of the station. Last one includes observing the counting.

I volunteered to the last shift (with counting) on a nearby town that is a devout coalition stronghold. I was given some training materials, as well as a support group, several Zoom meetings to attend - all to make sure I know what to do. I have already been an observer before, so I know the basics.

Still they worked on an "app" (a web app) for observers. That app was simple and helpful. Authentication was through OTP with SMS to my phone. It defined generally a clear workflow: at specific events it got me into simple scenarios (at startup, periodically check the notes. A simple messaging system that worked well.

The station I was in has been in the same room with a different station (voters from the same area were directed there, and were split by initial letter of last name between the two stations). The message every voter gets (by snail mail and through SMS) has in it not only the address and number of the voting station, but also the number in the list of voters. This saves lookup time (but of course does not bypass authentication). All in all it went smoothly. There was only one attempt I saw to badly manipulate voting notes (covered the notes of one list with a single note for another). And on several occasions people just grabbed many notes of a list they probably didn't like. But Apart from that, nothing really happened. It was boring. And boring is good.

Out station was run by a very strict and efficient secretary. A high school math teacher in real life. Who has worked as such committee secretary several times before. She said that considering the time involved, the pay is not that much great (although it is nice), but she feels she is doing an important job.

There is normally a final rush of voters arouund 21:00-22:00, before the close. But this time: nada. There was a high turnout all over the country (our station was 81%, slightly higher than the national average. Note that this does not include locals who voted elsewhere in double envelopes), But all the rush was in morning through noon.

Counting was almost uneventful. Our box had no disqualified ballots. The other one across the room had two disqualified ballots. One was a problematic note, I think. And the other was a joker who placed the following in the envelop: ב, י, ב, י, מחל. Counting was mostly done at 00:15. Fully done, with all administrativia, at around 00:45, I think. Then the two secretaries and one committee member had to drive to the regional elections committee (15 driving, given roads are clear), and then wait in line there (maybe an hour, given queues are full) to submit results, where they would be processed.

And of course I was not the only one. The Civic Elections Guard managed to find such volunteers for three shifts for almost every station nation side. I saw during elections day that they were still missing some 200-300 volunteers for counting. There were other places that were not fully manned (especially the noon shift). But still it was a massive effort.

Given the (expected and actual) massive voting in Arab-populated areas, #Likud, the main coalition party, tried to cast doubts about them in every possible way. Including adding their own people around voting stations. Having reliable reports from everywhere helps counter that (so far the Central Elections Committee seems rather dismissive of those complaints).

So all in all, nothing happened, I of course felt disappointed seeing all the votes given to parties I dislike. But this helps making sure that it's very difficult to commit any form of effective elections fraud. After being (albeit passive) part of the process, I have become even more confident of the process itself and how robust it is.

#Israel #ilpol #elections

Counting votes in the Israeli elections takes time.

Most voting stations were closed at 22:00 local time. At that time we know the number of votes everywhere.

Counting takes some 2 extra hours or a bit more. Then they drive to the regional election committee to physically submit the results. Only there the data is fed to the system. This will be done later today.

But then we get to the next stage: double envelopes.

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#Israel #ilpol #IsraeliElections